Leaders who look back : Hindsight, Retrospectives & Backcasting

Some well regarded psychological advice for happiness is to avoid dwelling on your thoughts or living in the past; in the words of Dr Richard Carlson, it's best to Stop Thinking, Start Living.    But in a business and commercial sense, it can indeed be helpful to look back so we can make sense of what’s been going on.  Sensemaking That’s how us humans make sense of things and connect the dots; we look back. Hindsight; it’s 20-20 vision after all!    As little events occur through life, we often don't make connections between them as they’re occurring, but when you look back, you can see with hindsight that there is sense to be made. A BIG sense. It's known as 'sensemaking'.    You’ll often hear people exclaim ‘I KNEW that was gonna happen’ or ‘you could SEE what was going on from the get go’.    We pick up clues and cues and our minds do the figuring out and the connecting of facts and happenings to make a plausible, possible explanation.  In a world of constant change, being able to make sense quicker becomes a strong competitive advantage.    Back to the Future With Back to the Future day happening recently it's a sweet reminder of past, present and future. This is when Marty McFly and Dr Emmet Brown in the film 'Back to Future Part II' went back in time and then forward to the future (which occurred in real time on October 21, 2015). We can apply a similar way of thinking in our own lives and businesses... even if we don’t quite have the time machine… yet.    Make Sense So yes, go back in time; look at what happened, and make sense of it.    In a while you’ll be able to make progress, then look back, make sense and learn again.    In agile software development, it’s known and adopted frequently as the Retrospective. This is where the team discusses what was successful, what could be improved and how to incorporate that into the future. In planning and strategy circles, an approach called backcasting is used.    Make Decisions Then you can go forward and because you know what you know, you can make decisions about the best steps forward for you and the team.  Make Progress While it’s easy, fun and distracting to look at bright shiny objects, cat videos and dogs in swimming pools, unless you’re learning and reflecting on what happened, you won’t make sense and you won't make progress.   You’ll get a sad case of FOMO. You’ll miss out on picking up trends, joining dots and making sense… and you won’t be prepared for the VUCA  (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) of now and the crazy future that continues to roll out up ahead.    Set your time machine mind to make sense regularly, so you can reflect, learn and get ready for the future.

Leaders Who Pivot

The term pivot has grown in popularity recently with its application to the world of the start up, the lean start up and making a course correction.

Eric Ries’ 'The Lean StartUp' explains it as a whole step in the process of Build/Measure/Learn, that from the learning part, you may need to head off over there, in another direction depending on market response to your idea or other influences that mean you need to shift and adjust and adapt… to be agile. 

In this VUCA world (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous), uncertainty needs to be met not with ridigity but with flexibility. 

Are you willing to shift off your set course? How willing are you to make a course correction?

Aaah, but what if you’re not a start up? What if you’re an old old family business? What if you’re part of a BIG global institution like a bank or a service business or health care provider or a big, cumbersome government department? 
What has 'starting up' anything got to do with you? How could you possibly pivot with what the organisation is working on? Maybe you think it will take six months to get things to shift to another direction no matter how small. Or perhaps the place is always pivoting, crazy-like, not able to set its mind on anything.

Well, here’s the deal.  Individuals can pivot.  A lot. 

The Daily Pivot

Have you watched someone walking down the street, then they kind of change their mind and quickly start walking back the way they’ve come, only to switch again and head across the road in another direction (looking both ways of course).   There are some quick pivots there, a change of mind, a rearranging of priorities and working out what to do first, next, later. 

The Lifestyle Pivot

Or have you heard from a friend who had plan A in place (selling their house, living in another country, planning a holiday to exotic location) only to meet up with them again and they’re now running with plan B (staying put, staying put and staying put - having a staycation). These are all changes in thinking, although these are all pretty safe. 

Perhaps next time you meet up they are onto Plan C: haven’t sold the house but are renting it out, are doing a work placement in another city and are holidaying in a developing country as a volunteer. More changes. More pivots.  
In business, connecting in to experimenting and risking and willingness to fail is the pivot. 

If something doesn’t work, move on and get on to doing something else. 

"So what do we do? Anything. Something. So long as we just don't sit there. If we screw it up, start over. Try something else. If we wait until we've satisfied all the uncertainties, it may be too late. 

- Lee Iacocca

Plot Twists and Tilts

The pivot is the ‘plot twist’. You’ve seen it in movies and films and some of the best storyline in the world feature the unexpected pivot.

It looks like this: all’s well and everything is going great and then when you least expect it, here it comes, the ‘whammmo’ plot twist. 

In improvisation where performers make up stuff as they go along, it’s called a ‘tilt’. Unexpected but responsive and it makes for brilliant theatre. You’ll get gasps and oooohs and aaaaaahs from the audience for a good tilt!

The Business Pivot

Learn from this. If you’re building, measuring and learning, no matter your field or industry, welcome the plot twist, the pivot and the preparedness to head off in another direction. It may be just a slight correction, a few degrees off, but it’s different enough to show you some different measurements and create some different learnings and leads to very different outcomes. 

Ask these questions (in a workshop, strategy session or team meeting): 

• What are you sticking to at the moment?
• What are you hanging on to, willing the thing to work dammit?
• What do you need to ‘give up’ on and shift, or pivot?
• What could a pivot look like in this situation?
• What would be a BIG mofo pivot?
• What could be a smaller pivot - but a pivot nonetheless?
• Who are you working with at the moment who needs to read this? Who isn’t shifting, one iota? Who needs to pivot?

 Be a leader who pivots; a leader who responds in uncertainty and doesn’t get stuck, paralysed or frozen from indecision. 

Will we, won't we, maybe... umm: the killer of business momentum

Indecision is such a business and momentum killer. 

Think of a meeting or conversation; there are ideas, possibilities, but then it all screeches to a halt because there isn’t a decision. Or wait, here’s the decision: lets set another meeting date and talk about it all again next time. Urgh! 
I think we are losing the drive to decide. 

Yet decisions are such a vital component of leadership. They help you choose a course of action. They set a direction. They help express your leadership. They give people some certainty in this crazy uncertain world. 

How about this: earlier this week I heard of more than 30 team members being on the receiving end and consequences of the indecision of a senior manager in a large organisation …  the leader couldn’t decide what to do with the most important part of their strategy day, which is just a few days away. 

What? It’s a big and important strategy day. And it’s that big and important and you can’t decide!?  

You still have no certainty on what you want to achieve, how you will do that, and you’re still oscillating and circulating and debating and ruminating over what could possibly be done.

And it’s a strategy day. And it’s important. And it’s involving other people. And it’s about the future of the team and what you work on. 

Whatever the details and the whys and wherefores and ‘yeah but maybe theys’ that you may be scripting in your mind about this situation, the point here is that a decision wasn’t made. Over a period of time. No decision. 

There’s a lack of leadership right there. That’s what it looks like.

It's Indecision. It's Oscillation. And Hesitation. 

Contemporary leaders must give some their teams certainty over the stuff they CAN give certainty on. And making decisions is one of them. Decisions help give people certainty. 

Leadership is about making heaps of decisions. Every day. Deciding which things will you tell, which you’ll share, ask or do; which things will you instigate, delegate, escalate, mitigate.    Yet it’s that flipping from one view to another, unable to make a call or to put a marker in the sand… it's that 'dicking around’ I call it, the not deciding that is a momentum and engagement killer. 

Do we fear that: 

• it will be the wrong decision
• it could really stuff things up
• maybe it’s not totally right
• is it the best we can possibly do, maybe we can do better later with a bit more time
• stuffing this up will hurt my career
• maybe this will cause conflict … and a bunch of other hesitation hang ups.  

Along with authenticity, clear communication and setting visions, leaders dear leaders, you need to make a FREAKING DECISION. And make it fast. Make one now. 

Failing Fast

If it doesn’t work, that is also known as ‘failing fast’. And you will soon know if it’s not right. Failure and failing fast is very ‘now’; it’s contemporary, hip and the done thing in agile teams and organisations. But you’ve got to decide so you can act and then see what happens. If you don’t decide, then you’re not leading.  
If you’re not making a decision you’re not stepping into action, you’re not running an experiment and you’re not leading. You’re lying… in waiting.

Dangerously Safe

It’s like you are balancing on a high wire, not moving towards the end goal and neither are you reversing or backing up to go along some other high wire. You don’t even have anything to help you balance on that wire. You’re a balance-less high wire walker. And that’s dangerous.  
You’re putting yourself in a situation where a little gust of wind, a little rattle on the high wire is something that could topple you over. That wouldn’t be a good ending.   

An End to Choice

"To decide". It means to end and terminate the choices you have. It means to ‘cut off’.

Don’t be the person or role that someone else decides to cut off because you’re not making decisions in your team or organisation. 

Decisions are leadership.Do them. Make them. Lead. 

The Competitive Advantage of Seeing What Others Don't

What does the view look like from where you are right now?

Jim Haudan in 'The Art of Engagement: Bridging the Gap between People and Possibilities' explains how people across an organisation 'fly' at different levels. He suggests 1000ft, 15000ft and 35000ft. 

Because we're flying at different altitudes, we have different views and perspectives.You'd know it from being in an aircraft:

• On the ground: you can see the airport and the tarmac as you're taxiing to the runway;
• Up in the air: up to a few thousand feet up there, you can make out towns and cities, roads and patchwork quilts of fields and farms; and
• Cruising Altitude: way up there, at 35,000 feet you're getting the big picture and a broad perspective stretching way over the horizon.

Just above here is a visual I use with teams to get them thinking about these different levels. You can write your thoughts in the clouds!

Relax and enjoy the flight; these levels are normal, natural and a part of everyday. But sheeesh it's hard when you're trying to bring people together to align to a strategy, implement a change or adopt some new ways of doing things!

We're so biased to see things that reinforce our beliefs that we need to take some deliberate action to see things in another way... in a way that other people may not see. 

Gary Klein in 'Seeing What Others Don't: The remarkable ways we gain insights' suggests:

"our insights stem from the force for noticing connections, coincidences, and curiosities"

So think about where you're seeing things from, and are you allowing enough connections, coincidences and curiosities in? Ask yourself:

• How does the view change if you climb up, up up?

• What's different if you zoom down and get a closer view?

• How do things look from where you are if you're 'on the ground'?

• What perspective, view or angle are you missing out on from where you are now?

• What do you need to do so you have a broader (or narrower) view?

• What might you have missed?

Klein says further: 
 

"people who can pick up on trends, spot patterns, wonder about irregularities, and notice coincidences are an important resource."

Seeing things, connecting the dots and making sense: this is the true competitive advantage of being able to see what others don't ...and I reckon that's a must-have skill for the uncertain future of work. 

5 Capabilities for Leading into the Unknown

Leaders leading in uncertain times and unknown situations are needing more flexible capabilities; a mindset of being able to flex and shift no matter what's happening. 

To lead into the unknown - whatever your industry, field, expertise or role - here are five capabilities for keeping it together when you're not sure what's up ahead:


 
1. Start Before You're Ready
You can't wait for the script to arrive. You've got to get momentum and get doing. 

Ray Bradbury, the science fiction, horror and fantasy writer, said, ‘First you jump off the cliff and you build your wings on the way down’. And although some believe the quote attributable to Kurt Vonnegut, another equally interesting and creative author, the message is the same: leap and the net will appear, you will adapt, you’ll work it out and you’ll be moving. We are adaptable humans. Our survival depends on it. 

2. Like Surprises
Scriptwriters call them 'plot twists' and we notice them as shocks, surprises or bolts from the blue. Once you’ve started before you’re ready and you’re in motion, some unexpected stuff will happen along the way. How spontaneous are you?  Do you insist on sticking with the plan or are you open to other ways, paths and possibilities?

3. Try Something Else
Experimenting helps you refine, edit and alter your thinking, offers, service, design or idea. It's rare for the first version to be the final version... of anything. In a world that's more accepting of failure as a learning process, you've got to see what works as well as what doesn't. As Keith Johnstone, teacher and godfather guru of improvisation says 'Do something, rather than having lengthy discussions about doing something'. 
 

4. Go Co

"If you want to see the future coming, 90% of what you need to learn you'll learn from outside your industry" - so says Gary Hammel, author of 'Leading the Revolution'.

Thinking with diversity invites varied views, talents, experiences, cultures and backgrounds to the table or conversation to co-create good work. 'Co' is all about together. Working with others is a... co-brainer. It's impossible to do it all by yourself. Plus, others need your expertise to make what they're doing brilliant too.  

5. Be Curious
Being a risk taker and brave explorer in times of uncertainty can feel like it’s too big a risk; but bold actions can also reap huge rewards. Leaders who set up an environment where others can succeed are staying open to what that team can do. That means stepping into some uncertainty, some unknown and some unsure. 

There's nothing to fear when you're leading into the unknown.

The opposite of fear isn't bravery; it's curiosity.